And now for something
entirely different . . .
In a book entitled British Security Coordination, published
in 1998, which was an internal history of the British intelligence campaign
during the Second World War against German influence in the Americas, the
following statement appears: ‘As WS learned, there was little doubt that Gallup
deliberately adjusted his figures in Dewey’s favour in the hope of stampeding
the electorate thereby . . .’
The
WS was William Stephenson, a Canadian, and head of the BSC (British Security
Coordination), and himself the subject of a later book, A Man Called Intrepid. The
Gallup mentioned was George Gallup, founder and director of the famous political
polling organisation. The Dewey was
Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican candidate in the 1944 election against
Roosevelt.
Whether
true or not, the above statement was of no great surprise to me, who had always
believed in the dubiousness of opinion polling.
There
are several ways in which logically polls could be skewed.
One
is through deliberate interference from the top, as is suggested in the case of
Gallup, though nowadays, one imagines, it would be much more difficult to
achieve.
Another
can occur at the interview level, especially nowadays when so many young people—and
the ground-level pollsters tend in general to be young—are ideologically
committed. In the two most recent Irish
referendums, one could make a pretty accurate guess as to how people were
likely to vote simply by looking at them, and choosing one’s interviewees
accordingly.
A
third way lies in the framing of the questions and the supplied range of readymade
answers.
As
well, of course, we all tend to be somewhat vague in our opinions, and, when effectively
door-stepped by a questioner, tend to reach for the most convenient answer in
order to hide our ignorance.
But
the really interesting part of the quotation above is the belief that a poll
could have the effect of ‘stampeding the electorate’ to vote for a particular candidate
or party. Although if such was the case
with regard to Dewey, it was a failure, because he lost quite substantially to
Roosevelt.
Yet
the suggestion is that a poll can be more than simply a reflection of opinion at
a certain point in time; it can, like a self-fulfilling prophecy, actually help
bring about the outcome it is predicting.
Is this true? I have always
thought so, even long before the matter of Gallup ever arose. Yet why should this be the case?
The
best answer I can come up with is reflected in the Grand National. Imagine someone who has 50p each way on the winner—and
there are usually plenty of them. Their
winnings tend to be paltry, yet the fact is that they are still generally over
the moon. And this is because they have
picked the winner, especially when they can see loads of their friends and
acquaintances who haven’t. In other words,
they receive a psychological boost from it, some sense of increased status vis a
vis the rest of the world.
And
I really do think that this is something inherent in the human heart, this desire
to be associated with winners, even if only forecast winners, in whatever field
it may be. And especially so in the
context of referendums and elections, where unless you have firm convictions,
which many people tend not to have, you are wide open to suggestion and to
being swayed.
Which
is why for a very long time I have been opposed to the idea of the publication
of polls in the weeks or months before voting, especially where political
parties etc. tend to commission a
selection of polls, publishing only those that give them the most positive
profile.
Indeed,
I tend to be suspicious of polling in general.
The
psychological mechanism that makes people vulnerable to manipulation can be viewed
in different ways. Certainly ‘authority’
seems to be a factor in it. It is
generally recognised by behavioural scientists now that there in an inbuilt tendency
in humans to obey authority. This is something
individually and socially variable in its effect, reflected no doubt in the
fact that Germans always seem to come top of the various surveys.
The
question is what constitutes ‘authority’; and who possesses it?